Tradition dictates me to do this; tradition makes slaves of us all.

Another year, another regular season. I might've been in a more festive mood for the postseason had the Rockets not blown Game 82 and dropped the home court. It doesn't matter; I'm too busy but I have been following the league as usual so here are my two thoughts before I give out the predictions:

Thought #1: Dwight Howard vs. Yao. You know...the truth is we're in an era of guards. Saying someone is the best center in 2009 is a minor topic of debate. Neither Yao or Howard would have been much in the 90's when we had real centers who took charge at the end of games and meant something. Patrick Ewing would've owned this era. 'Zo. The Admiral. A young Shaq. Definately Dream. Why do we argue constantly about whether or not D-Howard is better or Yao's better? At the end of the game, Hedo Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis is taking the shot. Rafer Alston is taking the shot. Aaron Brooks or Ron Artest is driving in the lane. Yao and Dwight are options four and five. But I will say that Yao pisses me off a lot more because unlike Howard, he could've been that guy. There's still time, but seven seasons have shown me he's refusing to accept that role. Why are we satisfied that he gets 20 points and 10 rebounds? Why are we satisified that he turned out better than Shawn Bradley and Manute Bol? We should demand Yao score 30 and 15 because he can. But he won't. And I'm worried that's ultimately how we'll remember Yao Ming...as a guy who was good enough, but never great. So who's better between Dwight and Yao? Does it matter?

Thought #2: Went to a game in San Antonio this season with a tour bus full of Rockets fans. There's something about going to someone else's stadium, watching your team beat theirs, and screaming the name of your team in their house that makes it so much better than beating someone at home. God, what a great experience. It was one of those games where the Rockets won at the final moment and every Spurs fan went out of the building in remorseful silence. Good memory to have.

Alright, I got other work to do. Let's make this quick...

Individual Award Predictions:

Most Valuable Player - Lebron James ( Cleveland )
Rookie of the Year - Derrick Rose ( Chicago )
Best Defensive Player - Ron Artest ( Houston )
Most Improved Player - Chris Duhon ( New York )
Sixth Man of the Year - Jason Terry ( Dallas )
Coach of the Year - Mike Brown ( Cleveland )
Executive of the Year - Daryl Morey ( Houston )

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- Louis' Predictions for the 2009 NBA Playoffs -

ROUND ONE

1. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 8. Utah Jazz

The perfect opponent for the Lakers if you're a fan of one of those teams who're potentially playing the Lakers in future rounds ( like, *cough*, the Rockets ). The Jazz's advantage at point guard, their illegal home court advantage, and endless assortment of flops and tasteless fouls will tenderize the Lakers as a beatable team by round two. Odom coming out of the bench is interesting. Bynum looks *real* good in his return; this will be a major story by the time the playoffs are over. Milsap's going to do major damage against the Lakers. Also like the Phil Jackson/Jerry Sloan matchup; two well-coached teams doing their thing. I see this thing going seven; Jazz will be a tough out.

Los Angeles in 7.

2. Denver Nuggets vs. 7. New Orleans Hornets

Denver is the two seed? Denver? That's right, you know what that means...teams would rather be number seven then six. I'm calling bullshit on Denver as they made it number two because the other teams chasing them faltered against one another and N.O. isn't the typical seven seed. In reality it's more on par of a 4 vs. 5. with Denver being the 5. This is essentially the same team with the same knuckleheads last season swapping the Answer for Billups. But the Hornets are tough, albeit lacking a bit in team chemistry. and will expose the Nuggets as soft. I am not impressed by the Nuggets. Yes, we'd all like to see the drama of Kobe and Colorado in the Conference Finals, but enjoy the headline of Kobe getting mugged in the Big Easy instead.

New Orleans in 6.

3. San Antonio Spurs vs. 6. Dallas Mavericks

Best kept secret -- the Mavericks are going to be the hottest team in the playoffs. They've found a swagger and cohesiveness to them that I can attribute to three things: 1.) The night Cuban threw a fit and threatened to fire all of them. 2.) The night they miraculously got the six seed after the Rockets crapped themselves in game number 82 of the regular season ( more on this later. Sigh ). and 3) J.J. Barea. That last one.......Barea's like this handicapped kid that somehow made it to the team. His surgence is so unexpected, so strange, that everytime he does something the Mavs become this unconditionally loving unit. They're so cohesive. And this is what makes them a very dangerous team in the playoffs; the kind of lower-seeded team that forgets they're supposed to be an easy out. The Spurs, meanwhile, are the opposite. There's no heart, there's no health, there's no talent left. They've got nothing. Not even a fight left in them.

Dallas in 5.

4. Portland Trailblazers vs. 5. Houston Rockets

Let's get one thing clear. The Rockets are the true second seed in this conference. Yeah, they choked in their last game, but thankfully they aren't usually like who they were in that last game. It cost them to drop down three seeds. Did it piss me off watching them go from winning their division for the first time in 15 years to losing the home court advantage? Yeah. But the true travesty to all this is that they'll be fodder for the Lakers in round two instead of a decent underdog for them in round three had they been a 2nd or 3rd seed. It's made the postseason a bit sour for me. ( pauses ) Okay, I just realized I spent half of this paragraph not talking about this series at all and there's a good reason for that. Portland....Portland doesn't belong here. National media's predicting them to go six or seven, possibly taking the Rockets to an early summer. Nope. The Rockets are eager to get out of the first round; I know, it's an embarassing goal but this is the year we do it.

Houston sweeps Portland in 4. Yeah. I said it.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 8. Detroit Pistons

Look, there's been a mistake. Detroit tried so hard to be in the lottery. They did everything but file an official request to the league to give the Bobcats or Pacers the eighth seed, but I guess the paperwork didn't make it fast enough because the Pistons are in the postseason as the quickest out and now without a lottery pick. It's been over for Detroit three years ago. End it. End their misery. Break the team. Rip, Rasheed ( definately, Rasheed ), McDyess, A.I., Tayshawn...all scattered to the wins via trades or free agency next season. Can't wait for the fire sale.

Cleveland sweeps Detroit in 3. Detroit quits after game three.

2. Boston Celtics vs. 7. Chicago Bulls

Vinny Del Negro goes for the gimmick of bringing his dad in games. I like that. It's original. His dad gets the camera, he's interviewed, all the pressure is lifted off the Bulls, everyone cheers for the Bulls. On a more serious note, it's disappoint to know that the Celtics won't be a title contender not only because KG's hurt, but because they've never really been in during the second half. This is kind of surprising actually because I honestly thought the Celtics would show more heart in defending their title. I think this series will expose the Celtics as what they really are -- a medicore overachieving and injured team with little heart........and it will expose Derrick Rose as one of the best rookies ever. He's a bigger, quieter version of Chris Paul. We now have Paul, Deron Williams, Brandon Roy, and now Rose. Four excellent point guards of the future. Watch this series for Rose alone. Celtics win only because they have the home court and they have the experience and pride.

Celtics in 7.

3. Orlando Magic vs. 6. Philadelphia 76ers

Every year the East has a matchup that nobody cares about. Not even their own fans. Philly, do you know your Sixers are in the playoffs? Didn't know that did you. It's alright, they're gonna lose. Sit back down, go back to watching your Phillies games and chewing on your cheesesteaks. As for Orlando -- have and always will be a weak team in the Dwight Howard/Rashard 3-Point Line Lewis Era. The Magic aren't a team built for playoff longevity. They're soft, predictable, and Hedo's their go to guy when the game's on the line. They may fatten up on teams like the Sixers, but anyone else worth a damn will easily beat the Magic.

Magic in 5.

4. Atlanta Hawks vs. 5. Miami Heat

Atlanta has proven to be deceptively competitive since last year's playoffs. The explanation is beyond a casual observer, which I am but I wager it's something about the way they're built. They've got an assortment of all types of basketball roles, kind of like the handyman with the extensive toolbox. Thus, in theory they should easily beat a team like the Heat who's got nothing but Wade, a washed-up Jermaine O'Neal, and a bunch of rookies. If you're playing the conspiracy theorist, however, you know the league isn't going to lose a chance of a Wade v. Lebron second round matchup. The only way the Heat wins this series is if Wade gets all the calls and averages 40-50 a game. No better matchup for conspiracy ammo then watching this series. So watch it. This is the only reason I'm picking the Heat because, let's face it, the Heat aren't a good team...definately worse than the Hawks by far.

Heat in 6.


ROUND TWO

1. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 5. Houston Rockets

Didn't want the Rockets to play them this soon; don't think they have a chance now. When the Rockets end their season in early May, they can trace their season down to one game: Game 82 of the regular season when they dropped from potentially 2nd to 5th. We could've been talking about a beat up Lakers team enduring the fatigue of Utah and Denver/New Orleans and a pumped Rockets team with Houston in position to make the Finals. But. After Game 82 this happens. This. Rockets vs. Lakers in Round Two. The Rockets would need Artest/Battier to lock up Kobe, Yao to find some leadership and dominate consistently, Artist not to jack up threes or make the threes he inadviably jacks up, and somehow someone else ( Brooks, Laundry, etc. ) to have the best series of their lives. And even then, the Lakers are efficient with their triangle offense, they're healthy, they're experienced. It's over for my Rockets. And it was because of Game 82. Hey. at least we made it past round one. ( Tangent --> ) You know, I can remember watching the Rockets in the mid-90's and wishing they'd suck a little more just to make the games more exciting. That was how spoiled I was. A 20-point lead bored me. I wanted us to win them by 2 or 3 points. Now? Now I'm just happy they got past the first round. How low our expectations have fallen as Rockets fans.

Los Angeles by 5.

7. New Orleans vs. 6. Dallas Mavericks

I have this pattern of predicting massive first round upsets every postseason. Last year I had 7 vs. 6 too. But I'm going with my gut, however inaccurate it may be, that San Antonio won't make it and Denver's a fake. Should the Hornets play the Mavericks in the second round, it would be a good series, although these are the same teams that matched up last year in the first round. We can deduce from that same series a few things: 1.) Kidd can't guard Paul 2.) Chandler was a big part of that series and he's not here from injury 3.) The Mavericks have a new coach while the Hornets are going through another year hating Byron Scott more. So what does this all mean? It means the Mavs will put up a bigger fight this time. It means the Hornets will remain consistent in their competitiveness. But since basketball is a game of momentum both in microscopic levels and grand levels ( such as series and entire playoff runs ), Dallas will be the team with the largest momentum should they make it this far as predicted. That's why I'll pick them to make it the Western Conference Finals. The power of J.J. Barea.

Dallas by 7.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 4. Miami Heat

Those of you personal matchup whores, here's the series you've been waiting for...at least until the Cavs/Lakers finals. King James vs. D-Wayneee Wade. Two teams dependent on one guy. I'm watching every game of this series. I know I'm witnessing history...one of those Dominque/Bird type series. It's inevitable that the Cavs are gonna pull through; I'm just hoping it lasts seven games. As for the rest of the guys -- Michael Beasley is a bust, Mo Williams is overrated, Eric Spoelstra shows promise as a coach, but he's not Stan Van Gundy, and as stated in the beginning of this entry, Varejao looks like Sideshow Bob. Yes, that's my expert analysis of this series. Just enjoy the Wade/Lebron matchup; the Heat have no business to be here.

Cavs by 6.

2. Boston Celtics vs. 3. Orlando Magic

Gotta love the East; at least their seeds align right. After all the hoopla I just made that the Magic are too soft to beat a quality opponent, I'm going to contradict myself a bit and declare them to beat the Celtics. I don't think the Celtics want it enough this season for whatever reason that makes them apathetic ( was it the loss of Posey and P.J. Brown? Even Cassell? ). Plus any team with Stephon Marbury is doomed to fail; just too much bad karma with that guy. When they brought in Marbury, they brought in a voodoo doll that's going to stink their organization for as long as they hold on to him. Basketball-wise, Orlando's got a deeper team, a more consistent pool of talent, and I don't see Big Baby and Kendrick Perkins getting anything but punked by Dwight Howard. Champs get dethroned in round two.

Orlando in 6.

CONFERENCE FINALS

1. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 6. Dallas Mavericks

Mavs make it to the Conference Finals and becomes a big story. The season is considered a huge success thanks to the domino effect from Game 82 against the Rockets. Cuban's happy, everyone's happy. J.J. Barea will never have to pay for a meal in Dallas again. He will run for mayor. He will win. He will start a restaraunt franchise ( Barea's Dishes ). The Lakers, meanwhile, will go about their business, expose the Mavericks' lack of depth, lack of talent, lack of oirganization, lack of a good defense.........and both the Lakers and Mavs end this series as winners.

Los Angeles in 5.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 3. Orlando Magic

Who knew that after Shaq and Co. got eliminated from the '95 Finals that the Magic would turmoil into medicority forever. Sure they've been deep in the playoffs a few times and made numerous first round apperances, but aside from the '96 team the following year, have they ever been a true threat as a contender? I digress; let me stop digressing then -- I noted how Hedo's their main go-to guy earlier and Dwight Howard, slam dunk contests, 20+ points, 12 rebounds aside...is merely an ornament. He's got no moves. He's a fancier Otis Thrope...or David Robinson without any game and all physical prowess. Meanwhile, the Cavs have the best player on the planet right now. Unless the Magic expect to bombard them with three-pointers all series long, it's not happening for Orlando. Nice knowin' ya.

Cavs in 6.

FINALS

1. Los Angeles Lakers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

An intriguing Finals. Intriguing. The ghosts of Jordan are all over this one -- the transformation of Kobe leading himself into a leader who trusts and brings out the best of his teammates. The type of player that was so inspirational in the Olympics that he transformed his top NBA opponent ( Lebron ) into trying to beat him. Kobe has become all that was ever good about Jordan in his prime; the Jordan after his first retirment. Lebron, meanwhile, has embraced his role as the best talent on the planet. The kind of guy who can bring with him 11 random average guys, and make them the best team in the NBA by the sheer ability and drive of one individual. No other superstar in the NBA gets fans more excited than Lebron James. He represents young, talented Jordan of the late 80's/early 90's. So don't see it as Lakers/Cavs. See it as the closest thing to reality of the 1991-93 Bulls vs. the 1996-98 Bulls. I'm pumped to see this. The network ratings will go off the roof. The Lakers are deeper, veteran, balanced, and have borderline stars in Gasol, Ariza, Bynum, and Odom. The Cavs? Well. The Cavs have Lebron. Expect one hell of a Finals. The NBA -- where amazing happens.

Lakers in 7.